Bitcoin and States: The Global Race to Adoption

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Current Landscape: Who Adopts Bitcoin?
3. El Salvador: The Pioneer Laboratory
4. The United States: From Opposition to Strategic Reserve
5. Europe: Between Regulation and Resistance
6. BRICS and De-Dollarization
7. Sovereign Mining
8. Future Scenarios
9. Implications for Investors
10. Regional Summary Table
11. FAQ
12. Conclusion
13. Internal Links
14. Sources and References

Suggested URL: /geopolitics/bitcoin-states-global-adoption

Category: Geopolitical Analysis

Summary: Geopolitical analysis of Bitcoin adoption by states. From pioneer El Salvador to American strategic reserves, through BRICS and Europe, mapping of an ongoing monetary revolution.

Introduction

From a marginal experiment to a strategic issue for major world powers.

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. What then seemed like a marginal experiment by a small Central American state has transformed into a precursor signal of a major geopolitical movement.

Four years later, the question is no longer whether states will adopt Bitcoin, but how and at what pace. From American strategic reserves to BRICS experiments, from sovereign mining to European regulatory attempts, a global race to adoption is underway.

This article analyzes the different state strategies regarding Bitcoin, the underlying geopolitical motivations, and the implications for the global monetary order.

1. Current Landscape: Who Adopts Bitcoin?

Mapping of nations daring to challenge the traditional monetary system.

1.1 Countries Having Adopted Bitcoin as Legal Tender

1.2 Countries with Sovereign Bitcoin Reserves

1.3 Favorable Countries Without Formal Adoption

1.4 Hostile or Restrictive Countries

2. El Salvador: The Pioneer Laboratory

The bold bet of a small country disrupting the global monetary order.

2.1 The 2021 Decision

President Nayib Bukele passed the "Ley Bitcoin" in June 2021, making Bitcoin legal tender alongside the US dollar.

Official Motivations:

• Financial inclusion (70% unbanked population)
• Reduced remittance costs (25% of GDP)
• Attraction of crypto investments
• Reserve diversification

2.2 Implementation

2.3 Assessment After 4 Years

Successes:

• Increased crypto tourism
• "Volcano" bonds (BTC-backed bonds)
• Significant gains on reserves (in bull market)
• International visibility

Failures/Challenges:

• Low daily adoption by population (~20% active users)
• Volatility problematic for merchants
• IMF and rating agency criticism
• Chivo wallet technical problems

2.4 Lessons for Other Countries

1. Infrastructure must precede law: Education and infrastructure are more important than legal obligation
2. Centralized custody creates risks: Chivo Wallet had security issues
3. Adoption cannot be decreed: Payment habits change slowly
4. Volatility remains a barrier: For daily use, stablecoins are preferred

3. The United States: From Opposition to Strategic Reserve

The world's first power facing the dilemma: fight or adopt Bitcoin.

3.1 Evolution of American Position

3.2 The 2024 Turning Point

The 2024 presidential election marked a turning point:

• Pro-Bitcoin candidates in campaign
• Promises of favorable regulation
• "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" project

3.3 The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

Concept: Build a national Bitcoin reserve, similar to gold reserves.

Arguments Advanced:

• Reserve diversification (currently ~70% in Treasury bonds, gold)
• Inflation hedge
• Maintaining financial supremacy against China
• Seized BTC (~200k) already represent a de facto reserve

Project Status (2025):

• Bills submitted to Congress
• Debate on governance (Fed vs Treasury)
• No final vote yet

3.4 Geopolitical Implications

If the United States establishes an official Bitcoin reserve:

• Adoption signal for other developed countries
• Potential accumulation race
• Impact on Bitcoin price
• Questioning of the dollar system

4. Europe: Between Regulation and Resistance

Brussels chooses strict regulation rather than monetary innovation.

4.1 The European Approach

Europe has chosen the regulatory path rather than adoption:

4.2 Position on Bitcoin Specifically

• No legal tender: Categorical refusal of monetary status
• Recognized asset class: Bitcoin is a regulated "crypto-asset"
• Heavy taxation: 30% in France, variable in EU
• No sovereign reserve: No project similar to USA

4.3 The Digital Euro as Response

The ECB is developing the digital euro as an alternative to cryptocurrencies:

• Centrally controlled CBDC
• Planned for 2027-2028
• Direct competitor to stablecoins and Bitcoin for payments

4.4 Internal Fractures

5. BRICS and De-Dollarization

Bitcoin as a weapon in the economic war against dollar hegemony.

5.1 Geopolitical Context

BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) seek to reduce their dependence on the US dollar.

5.2 Bitcoin as Sanctions Bypass Tool

For countries under Western sanctions:

5.3 Ambivalent Position of China

China has banned Bitcoin but:

• Holds significant reserves (seizures)
• Dominated mining before 2021
• Develops the digital yuan (CBDC)
• Could use Bitcoin strategically without admitting it

5.4 BRICS Currency Project

Discussions exist on a common BRICS currency:

• Potentially backed by a basket of assets
• Bitcoin sometimes mentioned as a component
• Project still theoretical

6. Sovereign Mining

Controlling hashrate means controlling part of the global Bitcoin network.

6.1 Mining as Geopolitical Issue

Bitcoin mining has become a sovereignty issue:

• Hashrate = power over the network
• Energy = comparative advantage
• National security = transaction control

6.2 Countries Investing in Mining

6.3 Decentralization Stakes

Geographic concentration of mining raises questions:

• USA + China (even banned) = ~60% of hashrate
• Risk of transaction censorship
• Debate on "sovereign" mining

7. Future Scenarios

Three possible futures for Bitcoin in the international monetary system.

7.1 Scenario 1: Progressive Adoption

Hypothesis: More and more countries adopt Bitcoin in their reserves, like gold.

Implications:

• Strong Bitcoin price increase
• Global legitimization
• Coexistence with CBDCs

7.2 Scenario 2: Currency War

Hypothesis: Confrontation between Bitcoin/crypto and state CBDCs.

Implications:

• Fragmentation of monetary system
• Bitcoin as "digital gold" for dissidents
• Growing restrictions in certain jurisdictions

7.3 Scenario 3: Coordinated Ban

Hypothesis: Major powers agree to ban Bitcoin.

Probability: Low, because:

• Technically impossible (decentralized network)
• Divergent interests between countries
• Adoption already too advanced
• Precedent of prohibition failures (alcohol, drugs)

7.4 Most Likely Scenario

Fragmented coexistence:

• Some countries adopt (reserves, legal tender)
• Others regulate strictly (Europe)
• Others ban (authoritarian)
• Bitcoin persists as neutral global network

8. Implications for Investors

How to position your portfolio in the global adoption race.

8.1 Signals to Watch

8.2 Geographic Diversification

Facing regulatory uncertainty:

• Hold BTC in different jurisdictions
• Consider international multisig
• Follow legal developments in your country

8.3 Long Term vs Short Term

9. Regional Summary Table

FAQ

Q1: Can a country really ban Bitcoin?

A country can ban exchanges, mining, and Bitcoin payments on its territory. However, it cannot technically prevent citizens from holding or sending BTC (via VPN, Tor, personal wallets). China has shown this: the ban did not eliminate use, it made it clandestine.

Q2: Why would states want to adopt Bitcoin?

Several motivations: reserve diversification (like gold), dollar inflation hedge, sanctions bypass tool, tech investment attraction, and anticipation of a world where Bitcoin would be a monetary standard.

Q3: Is state adoption good for Bitcoin?

It's a debate. For: legitimization, price increase, infrastructure. Against: centralization risk (sovereign mining), increased regulation, departure from original cypherpunk ideal.

Q4: What happens if the US and China fight for Bitcoin control?

Bitcoin is designed to resist this scenario. No state can "control" Bitcoin without controlling >50% of hashrate, which would require colossal investments and trigger countermeasures (algorithm change, etc.). Decentralization is a protection.

Q5: Has El Salvador succeeded in its bet?

Mixed results. Symbolic success and financial gains on reserves in bull market, but limited daily adoption. The model showed that imposing Bitcoin is not enough: education and infrastructure are essential.

Conclusion

The global race to Bitcoin adoption is reshaping monetary geopolitics. What was a marginal experiment in 2021 has become a strategic issue for major powers.

Key Takeaways:

1. State adoption is accelerating: From El Salvador to American projects
2. Europe chooses regulation rather than adoption
3. BRICS see Bitcoin as de-dollarization tool
4. Mining becomes a sovereignty issue
5. Coexistence with CBDCs is the most likely scenario

For individual investors, this geopolitical race reinforces Bitcoin's relevance as a diversification asset and protection against traditional monetary system uncertainties.

Internal Links

• CBDC vs Crypto - Currency War - Central bank digital currency analysis
• El Salvador - Experience Assessment - In-depth case study
• Switzerland and Crypto - The Zug Model - European alternative
• Tax Relocation - Favorable jurisdictions
• DAC8 and Tax Transparency - European framework

Related Articles - Geopolitics

• Switzerland Crypto Zug Model
• CBDC vs Crypto Currency War
• El Salvador Bitcoin Experience Assessment

Sources and References

Official Sources

• Presidencia El Salvador: Official communications on Ley Bitcoin
• US Congress: Bills on Bitcoin reserves
• ECB: Digital euro documentation
• BIS: CBDC reports

Analyses and Research

• Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker: Global CBDC project monitoring
• Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index: Mining data
• Chainalysis Geography of Cryptocurrency Report: Country adoption

Specialized Media

• Bitcoin Magazine: Institutional adoption news
• The Block: Data and analyses
• CoinDesk: International coverage

Article written in December 2025. The geopolitical situation evolves rapidly. State positions may change with electoral cycles and economic developments.